Who should start as centre forward in Van Persie's absence?

Source: Press Association Images

So once again Robin van Persie is out injured at a crucial period during Arsenal's season. His absence means that progression through to the Champions League quarter finals will be an uphill struggle, and in the FA Cup a daunting game at Old Trafford awaits the Gunners should they advance past Leyton Orient in their 5th round replay tonight. On the positive side he will only miss 2 Premier League games should his recovery go to plan, with Arsene Wenger estimating that the Dutchman will be out for at least 3 weeks.

Robin van Persie is of course a top class player, but his effect on Arsenal's system extends far beyond his own individual contributions. His appreciation for space, intelligence in his movement, and ability to retain and distribute the ball high up the pitch, all make him the ideal candidate to act as the "false 9" within Arsenal's attack. His presence brings the best out of the likes of Cesc Fabregas and Theo Walcott, players who thrive on the space that van Persie creates for them in behind defences.

Van Persie's injury last year saw Arsenal transform from free-scoring high-fliers to a team that ended up limping, trophyless, over the finishing line in May. It was clear that his injury disrupted the team's attacking flow, and although Wenger experimented with several different players in the centre forward roles (Bendtner, Eduardo, and more radically Arshavin), none of them were able to replicate the influence of the Dutchman.

With Wenger looking unlikely to stray from his 4-2-3-1 setup this season, it's important that whoever fills in for van Persie is as similar as possible in terms of style of play. Step forward Marouane Chamakh. The Morroccan was signed on a free from Bordeaux last summer, and although he's struggled for form since December (not surprising given his lack of starts since the return of van Persie), his performances in the first few months of the season were excellent. Although lacking the creative talent and individual goalscoring game of van Persie, Chamakh was an effective deputy because vitally, he was able to replicate the intelligent movement and the hold-up play of the Dutchman, which is so vital in dragging markers out of position and facilitating the other attacking players in breaking into space.

The following table shows the overall team's attacking performance as well as individual goals/assists stats of the players who have started as centre forward since Arsenal switched to a 4-3-3/4-2-3-1 at the start of last season*. Realistically Arshavin will not be playing in the middle again this season, but his stats are shown for reference.


(*Only Premier League and Champions League proper games have been included, as other competitions tend to include weakened teams. Further breakdown of home/away performances as well as game-by-game stats are available by clicking on the other tabs at the bottom.)

What's evident is that the team scores at an amazing rate with van Persie as starting centre forward (obviously), but despite appearing to be individually the weakest of the club's 3 centre forwards, Chamakh does a much better job than Bendtner in preserving the attacking flow and goal average. The Morroccan lacks movement into goalscoring positions, directness, and killer instinct, but he more than makes up for it with his teamplay and overall positive effect on the team's ability to ripple the back of the net.


Source: Getty Images

I have speculated previously on the reason behind Bendtner's apparent negative effect on team performance despite seeming to do well on an individual level. I believe that the role of the centre forward in Arsenal's 4-2-3-1 should first and foremost be to aid the flow of the attack and to create space for the 3/4 players behind him. The individual goalscoring/assists performance of the centre forward comes secondary to the team's overall attacking performance. In that respect, van Persie and Chamakh do a far better job than Bendtner, who seems to stifle the team's fluidity with his (relatively) poor touch and movement. This trend is evidenced by the superior team performances when the centre forward role was occupied last season by Andrei Arshavin. The Russian, a natural attacking midfielder, contributed next to nothing in terms of goals/assists but enabled the team to score at an average of 2 goals per game, highlighting the importance of having a player who can drift about, take passes in his stride and keep the ball moving within the final 3rd.

One of the arguments in favour of Bendtner is that he very often pops up with vital goals and assists (this was particularly true from February onwards last season). However, you could say that Bendtner's ability to provide important match-saving contributions is a self-fulfilling prophecy. By making the system less geared towards fluidity and interchanging of positions, and more geared towards serving an orthodox no.9 (relative to other Arsenal centre forwards), the team's goal output is decreased, but the likelihood of Bendtner being the one to score or assist increases. And therefore he appears to be bailing Arsenal out, when in fact his presence was probably the root cause of Arsenal struggling in the first place.

In fact, the only game where Arsenal have scored more than 3 team goals with Bendtner as starting centre forward, was the 5-0 win over Porto. Bendtner was surprisingly clinical that game, netting a hattrick from 2 predatory finishes and a penalty. A system with Nicklas Bendtner as the single centre forward would only work in the long term if he could improve his finishing. In a more orthodox attacking system, less chances are created, and it therefore becomes vital that the focal point inside the box (i.e. Bendtner) makes the most of the chances that come his way. Unfortunately this has rarely been the case in the past.

Conclusion:

Unless Wenger switches to a 4-4-2 or another formation that facilitates 2 centre forwards, Marouane Chamakh remains the ideal candidate to take over van Persie's false 9 role. The Morroccan was given his chance at the start of the year and proved that he was able to fill the void that would otherwise have cost Arsenal a chance at the title, as it did the previous season. Nicklas Bendtner remains a decent plan B, but Chamakh's qualities are more in tune in with Arsenal's plan A.

Athletic Bilbao 1-3 Barcelona - Midfielder Goals

Last night's away fixture vs Bilbao saw Barcelona face a resolute team who looked to defend deep and narrow with two banks of 4 (sometimes 5+3 or 4+3). This tactic generally works well against Barcelona as it denies the attackers space to receive the ball and run at the defence, and it invites them to cross into the box, where tall centre backs will win aerial balls with ease against Barcelona's diminutive front line.

Rather than play into Bilbao's hands, Barcelona fullbacks circulated the ball back into the middle where, due to Bilbao's very deep midfield line, Barcelona's own midfielders had time and space on the ball. Fielding a 4 man midfield with Keita, Iniesta and Xavi in a close triangle ahead of Busquets, Barcelona were able to build attacks from the middle and use the momentum of their midfielders to open up space for shooting opportunities.

Keita opened the scoring after playing the ball wide to Iniesta and making a surge into the box, where he received the ball back after a neat one-touch pass from Villa. Xavi doubled the lead after a masterclass in patient passing from Barcelona, Maxwell drawing several defenders deep before circulating the ball back into the middle for Xavi, who'd gained several yards of space to fire off a (deflected) shot into the back of the net.

In stoppage time, with Bilbao chasing the game, Busquets received a loose ball in his own half and with one touch, brought it down for Keita, then proceeded to follow up the attack with a 60 yard run into Bilbao's box, where he was on hand to convert Pedro's cutback.

Analysis of Chamakh's movement vs Bolton

Following on from the post yesterday about Chamakh's first few games at Arsenal, here is a very short analysis of Chamakh's movement in the 4-1 win against Bolton and how it created space for others to exploit, particularly Arshavin.

Marouane Chamakh - First Impressions

After just 4 games into the season, I have to say I'm really impressed by the Moroccan. When he was signed on a free in the summer, a lot of fans (Arsenal included) questioned his goalscoring record and some claimed he was no better than Bendtner. But there's so much more to his game than simply being a goal-getter.

One of the main things that stands out about Chamakh is his heading. According to OPTA, he scored 17 headed goals in his last 2 seasons at Bordeaux. He's scored twice so far for Arsenal and both have been headers. He possesses fantastic leaping and neck power, and he throws himself at the ball instead of waiting for it to come to him. We saw this in action during the very first game, when he challenged Reina for a high ball and resulted in the keeper fumbling the ball into his own net. That sort of aerial threat is needed against teams who pack the box, defending deep and narrow (as Spurs and Man City did last season, knowing that they'd clear any aerial balls into the box). Bendtner, as decent a header he is, is not on the same level as Chamakh in that regard.

The key to getting the best out of his heading is to deliver hanging balls into the 6 yard box close to the keeper. It takes the defenders out of the equation and leaves Chamakh to contest the keeper one-on-one in an aerial duel, which given his bravery, shouldn't be a problem. In the pre-season friendly against Legia we saw how this tactic could work when Nasri delivered a nice tempting ball in to the 6 yard box which forced the keeper to commit, allowing Chamakh to nip in and head past him.

He also offers an outlet for long passes when under pressure. His chest control and first touch are very tidy, and he's much more adept at winning flick-ons than any other striker currently at the club. At the moment the team hasn't yet adapted to take advantage of this, and it's tougher when you don't have a strike partner in close proximity. In time we should expect Fabregas/other attacking midfielder to make the necessary runs to get on the end of his knock-downs, as Gourcuff did for Bordeaux.

Setting aside his obvious aerial prowess, the biggest threat he offers in my opinion is his movement. It's just brilliant. You often hear fans reeling out the "he makes the other players around him play better" cliche when defending a non-prolific striker, but in Chamakh's case it really is true.

When Adebayor was sold a lot of Arsenal fans (myself included) were wondering how the team would cope without a real presence in the box, but what became apparent was that one wasn't necessary. With the 4-3-3 formation, the emphasis was on stretching the play and creating space for runners into the box, whether that be from midfield (Diaby, Fabregas) or from the wider areas (Arshavin, Walcott). Van Persie was brilliant as the centre forward because he dropped deep, drew centre backs out and created that space for others to run into. It was no coincidence that Arsenal averaged 2.9 goals a game with van Persie in the side and 1.8 with him out.

Chamakh is similar in style, but the main difference between the 2 is that in addition to dropping deep, Chamakh also loves to drift wide. Consequently the 2 wide forwards have enjoyed much more freedom to make diagonal runs inside. Chamakh and Walcott seemed to have built up a good understanding in pre-season, and against Blackpool Walcott was able to hit a hattrick thanks to Chamakh's movement. For the 1st goal, Chamakh drifted left, the whole Blackpool defence shifted in that direction, and space was opened up for Walcott to come inside. For Walcott's 2nd, Chamakh drifted to the right and Walcott took up his spot in the centre forward role. It wasn't as dynamic a move as the 1st goal, but it did demonstrate the understanding the 2 have in swicthing positions. When Walcott comes inside, Chamakh moves to the right to avoid congesting the space the in the box.

Against Blackburn, the 2nd goal was initiated by Chamakh dropping deep and picking up the ball on the half way line. A centre back followed him, space developed in the middle for Walcott to run into, the left back was dragged infield and Sagna had space to bomb into, creating a goal in the end.

With Walcott injured, Chamakh was able to turn his attentions to helping out Arshavin yesterday, and his constant runs to the left opened up gaps for Arshavin to run into. Unfortunately Arshavin missed all of his chances but the understanding and movement was there. For the Cahill sending off, where was Chamakh? On the left touchline, drawing defenders out of position towards him and backheeling the ball for Arshavin to run into space.

Last season the quality of Arsenal's play declined after van Persie was injured, the team was unable to play the same fluid football with Bendtner/Arshavin as the front man, and began to struggle against organised opposition at the Emirates, exactly the way they'd done the previous season. But in Chamakh, Arsenal now have a quality replacement for van Persie, a player who allows the team to play the same fluid system in his absence, albeit without the goalscoring capabilities of the Dutchman.

Blackburn 1-2 Arsenal Analysis

There was a lot of talk before the match about how Arsenal would cope with Blackburn's long ball and set piece-orientated style of football, particularly after comments made by both sets of managers. In the end it was fairly comfortable for the Gunners as they defended their box well and exposed Blackburn's lack of possession retention.

With the return of van Persie and Fabregas to the line-up, it was interesting to see how it would affect the (vaguely) 4-2-3-1 setup of the previous 2 games. Indeed there was a change with van Persie resuming his role as the "false 9", dropping deep to draw the centre backs with him, then looking to thread in the 2 wide forwards who made diagonal runs inside. Fabregas provided an additional threat, making plenty of forward runs to exploit the gap vacated by the Dutchman's movement, and on many occasions he found himself the furthest man forward.

Arsenal's brand of 4-3-3 - Van Persie (10) and his replacement Chamakh (29) dropped deep, the wide forwards played high up against the opposing full backs and Fabregas (4) constantly made runs beyond the centre forward. (The image is mirrored for some reason, Walcott was in fact playing on the right and Arshavin on the left, ditto Sagna and Clichy).

Van Persie departed after only 35 minutes but by then he'd already made his mark on the game, setting up Walcott for the opener with an excellent pass in between the opposing fullback and centre back. It was exactly the sort of goal that Arsenal's 4-3-3 formation facilitates, and with an intelligent runner like Walcott who's always looking to make that penetrating diagonal run, it should be a regular occurrence this season.

Van Persie was replaced by Chamakh, who performed a similar role. For the 2nd goal, Chamakh dropped back to the halfway line and spread the ball out to Sagna; meanwhile Walcott drifted into the centre forward role and drew the left back with him; this left Sagna with space to bomb forward and his cross found its way to Arshavin after Fabregas' shot had deflected off Walcott's rear end. Arshavin finished with typical finesse. Again, this was a goal made possible by the 4-3-3 formation, or rather Arsenal's version of the 4-3-3, in which the fullbacks bomb forward, the centre forward drops deep, and the wide-forwards make runs inside. It's all about movement and interchanging of positions, it confuses opponents and makes it harder to mark individual players.

As with the previous 2 games, the defending was again a strong point. Blackburn's long goal kicks and throws were handled with relative ease. Almunia came for the ball confidently, Koscielny and Vermaelen won many aerial balls, and Song was on hand to sweep up any spills.

According to OPTA, Arsenal won 55% of duels which is very impressive against a team that bases its game on aerial and physical superiority. It was a great display of collective commitment and should give Arsenal fans encouragement for the trip up to Stoke at the end of the season.

Arsenal's 4-3-3, Part 2

Carrying on from part 1, this video more than anything shows what Arsenal missed while van Persie was out injured for 5 months.

Arsenal's 4-3-3, Part 1

A short video which shows how Arsenal's new 4-3-3 formation at the start of this season enabled the team to play more fluent and ultimately high-scoring attacking football.